Hoboken, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS61 KOKX 091808
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
208 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A humid airmass will remain in place through Thursday, allowing for
the potential development of showers and thunderstorms. There is
then a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms expected
through Monday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north
Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The area will continue to destabilize this aftn. SBCAPE generally
1000-2500 J/kg per the 17Z HRRR analysis, with CIN eroding.
With sea breeze boundaries, a weak trof, and falling heights,
isold-sct tstm initiation possible into the early eve. Storm
motion is modeled to be around 5kt, so there is a localized
flood threat with any storms that develop, especially if
redevelopment occurs along storm outflows in a primarily
multicellular environment. The NAM models DCAPE in the 500-1000
J/kg range, so with the EL at 43k ft in the OKX 12Z sounding,
any storms aoa that lvl could produce some svr lvl downbursts.

Widespread shwrs and tstms expected tngt as an h5 trof comes thru
and provides some solid upr lvl support. Perhaps some bowing
segments for an isold svr risk. Bands of hvy rainfall could produce
some areas of mainly minor flooding as well. Model focus of the hvy
rain is generally ern areas of LI where FFG is highest, somewhat
limiting the overall threat. However, if the bands were to set up
further W over the urban corridor, there would be a flash flood
risk.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Additional chances for shwrs and tstms on Thu as the upr trof and
embedded shrtwv energy lingers in the area. Stuck with the NBM
timing here, but if activity is robust early in the day as the NAM
suggests, there could be limited action in the aftn where the
airmass is worked over. However, if a mrng round doesn`t develop,
more extensive activity seems more likely in the aftn hours. A bit
cloudy with onshore flow, so high temps 70s and 80s with max
apparent temps mainly in the 80s.

As the upr trof axis passes E of the CWA Thu ngt, decreasing
chances for rain. With lgt llvl flow, moisture will remain in
place resulting in a humid ngt.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages
- Showers and thunderstorms are a daily concern through
Monday, thanks to a lingering boundary and plenty of moisture from
the onshore flow. Western forecast areas are at the greatest risk,
as daytime heating will boost instability.

- The greatest uncertainty in the forecast period, particularly for
temperatures and PoPs, remains Sunday through Monday. This is
attributed to the varied handling of a weak frontal system by the
ensembles.

- Next week, temperatures are expected to warm up, reaching the mid
80s to around 90 degrees. Lows in the upper 60s to mid-70s. ML
guidance is hinting at a low (10-30%) threat for severe weather that
will need to be monitored, along with a frontal system late in the
week.

No major changes made to the NBM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through the
TAF period.

Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms later this
evening into Thursday morning. There continues to be uncertainty
with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms.
There is a chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight into early Thursday
morning along the coast, with areal coverage and timing uncertain.

Winds will generally be southerly this afternoon with sea breezes.
Winds become light SW this evening to light and variable outside of
the NYC metro terminals. A light southerly flow develops Thursday
morning.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms
which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: Chance of showers and thunderstorms into the
early evening with MVFR possible. Otherwise VFR.

Friday - Sunday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon and early evening near and northwest of the NYC
terminals with MVFR possible.

Monday: VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Outside of tstms, winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls
thru Thu. A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend
will keep winds and seas below SCA levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is a risk for mainly minor urban and poor drainage flooding
thru Thu with rounds of shwrs and tstms expected. Although not
currently modeled, if the heaviest bands of rain set up over the
more flood prone areas of NJ and the urban corridor, there will be a
more substantial flash flood risk there.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches
into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The
moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on
Thursday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/EA
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...EA
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/EA
HYDROLOGY...JMC/EA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...